Saturday February 5 – Morning report
As you slept, cold air crept in and was followed by flurries. That shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. I mentioned the higher level energy following the storm, just that it came a little early.
This opens us up to the heart of the cold air, which we can see in two radar loops below.
While next week will return to near and above average temperatures, mid-February is expected to turn cold and wintry again.
- Morning: Snow showers
- Afternoon: windy and cold
- Next week: warming temperatures
- Return of winter weather in the middle of the month with disturbance of the polar vortex
Doppler radar loop (1 of 2)
3 a.m. to 5 a.m.
Here we can see an enhanced snow line as it moved across central Maryland. It was the main trough and it may have dropped a light dusting of snow on the ground.
Doppler radar loop (2 of 2)
5:45 a.m. to 7:10 a.m.
The pattern here is different, showing the ringing of showers and possible squalls. These bands are more spread out, but can also deposit a layer of snow on the ground and the roadway. Temperatures are cold enough to support it now.
Radar snapshot at 7:15 a.m.
Flurries spread across central Maryland at sunrise. This can drop a blanket of snow on the ground around the Baltimore Beltway in Howard County and can reach BWI all the way to Annapolis.
Off the east coast goes the old front and the storm that crosses the country. We are now in a cold pattern, marked by snow showers this morning. Winds will remain gusty and we cannot rule out further flurries or flurries.
The frost has reached the beaches.
This is what it will “look like”
Weather Almanac: BWI Climate Data
TODAY February 5
Seasonal Snow: 13.3″;
+4.7″ ABOVE AVERAGE
Normal low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record -1ºF in 1996
Baltimore normal high: 43°F
Record 73ºF 1991
The weekend will end cold, but calm.
There is still a chance for some light showers nearby, most likely over Delmarva. The best chance of showers or steady light rain will be Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
Winter has more in store…
In the middle of the month, we will see another push of arctic air into the jet stream. We might start to see this develop at the end of the net week, leading up to Valentine’s Day.
This is the Jet Stream European Loop
No promises for Valentine’s Day in particular, but it’s in the window for the wintry weather to pay a visit.
Support from Dr. Cohen
A “stretched” polar vortex is the disturbance we need to send arctic air our way
“My name is PV, stretched PV” (aka stratospheric #Polar Vortex). The GFS forecast manages to predict an almost textbook stretched PV for the second week of February with relatively #cold temperatures first in central and eastern Asia, then east of the Rocky Mountains in Canada and the United States pic.twitter.com/3HuOTsxdU8
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) February 3, 2022
Next week will be slightly above the seasonal norm. I will watch Friday for any adjustment of cooler air arriving earlier, then the return of true winter cold in the following week.
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Winter Perspectives Series:
My Snow Call
Recap of last winter: my old outlook and your notes of my storm forecast
Winter Weather Page – Lots of Resources
Solar cycle Increased sunspots suggest more snow
Comparison of 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Mostly Colder Winter Outlook Than NOAA’s
NOAA Winter Outlook – But read the fine print
Signals for an early start to winter in November
Winter Perspectives Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters may give a hint for winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
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